Developers should embrace AR8 in 2026 as the UK eyes its long-term offshore wind targets and energy independence

According to Kerry Scott, Chief Investment Officer at Reventus Power, the UK’s Contracts for Difference allocation round seven (AR7) has put offshore wind back on track and should encourage developers to engage confidently in AR8. As the UK works towards its Clean Power 2030 targets, AR8 represents a critical opportunity to maintain momentum and ensure the pipeline of projects needed to deliver the country’s energy transition. 

The UK’s AR7 exceeded expectations. In January, the UK Government awarded Contracts for Difference (CfD) support to six fixed-bottom offshore wind projects totalling more than 8.2GW, including major projects such as the 3.1GW Norfolk Vanguard and 3GW Dogger Bank South.

The result marks a significant turnaround for the sector after the failure of AR5 in 2023, when no offshore wind bids were secured. In 2024, AR6 saw 5.3GW awarded, although about 30% of that capacity reflected projects rebidding from earlier rounds. It also resulted in Ørsted putting project Hornsea 4 under review despite having secured a CfD in AR6. 

By contrast, AR7 has restored confidence that the CfD mechanism remains an effective tool for delivering large-scale offshore wind investment.

Aiming for 2030 targets

The UK’s Clean Power 2030 Action Plan commits the government to reaching 43–51GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030.

Today, the UK has around 16GW operational, with a further 21GW either under construction or supported by CfDs, bringing the committed pipeline to roughly 37GW. With the AR7 results, we see strong UK Government commitment to follow through on its stated 2030 Clean Power Action Plan targets, for which we can potentially see between 6GW and 14GW of additional capacity being awarded in the next year to stay on track. 

AR7 demonstrated how targeted policy adjustments can unlock that pipeline. Allowing projects to bid before securing all permits expanded the pool of eligible projects, while restrictions on rebidding surrendered capacity helped prioritise new developments.

Many of these changes are expected to carry over into AR8, although several factors will influence its outcome. Not all projects that missed out in AR7 are guaranteed to return, with some developments paused and others facing structural challenges. In Scotland, for example, higher transmission costs continue to create headwinds for some projects.

Ongoing grid reforms may also influence project eligibility, although the overall framework is unlikely to change significantly.

Finally, the AR8 budget will be closely watched. In AR7, the initial £900m budget created strong competitive pressure among bidders, before the government ultimately increased the allocation to nearly £1.8bn. The Secretary of State’s discretion to approve additional capacity proved an important mechanism in ensuring sufficient projects could move forward.

Maintaining momentum

Overall, the outlook remains positive. Offshore wind is widely recognised as nationally significant infrastructure and one of the most effective ways to deliver large-scale, low-cost electricity while supporting jobs, exports and supply-chain investment.

As AR8 approaches, continued policy stability and developer participation will be essential to maintain momentum. If projects continue to progress through development, investors will play a key role in helping them reach final investment decision.

Reventus Power stands ready to partner with developers, provide capital to late-stage projects and help ensure the next generation of offshore wind farms progresses to construction and delivers the capacity the UK needs.

EU outlook

Zooming out, there is also promising news coming from other European countries, supporting an inflection point for the offshore wind industry. Whilst 2025 has been a tough year for offshore wind, 2026 is looking brighter as we pick on recovery signals across core EU markets and expect it to be an important consolidation year for the industry. 

On the back of failed tenders in the last few years, three well-established merchant markets are now in the process of adopting new support schemes based on CfDs (Germany, Denmark, Netherlands) that will send the right signals to supply chain and reignite investor interest. 

EU energy independence and security continue to be at the heart of a political shift as geopolitical tensions with Russia and US, and the Iranian conflict, dominate political thinking and the global news cycle. The Hamburg declaration at the North Sea Summit in January 2026 is a testament to that EU commitment to offshore wind, and this is bound to deliver development opportunities, pipeline visibility and certainty for developers, investors and supply chain. 

Yet energy security is only one part of the supply and demand momentum. As European power demand grows, led mostly by electric vehicles and data centres, incremental generation needed by 2050 is set to be more than 50% higher than the level in 2024, according to BloombergNEF’s ‘New Energy Outlook 2025’ report. Whilst meeting rising demand relies on a technology mix, the optimal solution will require scale, competitive cost and rapid deployment.  

The UK in particular has a green edge in accommodating data centre demand as the incremental generation needed to meet UK data centre growth demand can largely be met by renewables until 2035. This is where offshore wind is key: it expands rapidly and emerges as most scalable and deployable solution to meet twin needs of energy security and growing power demand. 

At Reventus Power, we are confident that offshore wind can play a pivotal role in solving for an apparent supply-demand dislocation and we can be part of the solution by providing utilities and developers with delivery visibility, and supporting project timelines so capital can be committed and projects can move forward.